AmericasOilWatch Weekly — WTI $102, Hormuz still shut, 8.47mb gasoline draw (29 Apr)

AmericasOilWatch Weekly Wednesday, 29 April 2026

Welcome to this edition of AmericasOilWatch Weekly.

The Western Hemisphere is not escaping the current oil shock. It is increasingly helping to absorb it. By later on 29 April, oilprice.com had WTI at $102.70/barrel and Brent at $114.50/barrel, both up from Reuters' early-morning prints of $100.44 and $112.37. AAA's latest national averages showed U.S. regular gasoline at $4.176/gallon and diesel at $5.461/gallon as of 28 April. (oilprice.com; Reuters; AAA)

This week's takeaway: the Americas are cushioning the global system, not standing outside it. U.S. crude and fuel exports are running near record levels, Panama Canal traffic is rising as shipping patterns shift, and the places most exposed inside the hemisphere are still refined-product markets — especially diesel and the U.S. West Coast. (EIA; Reuters)

Three numbers that matter

WTI crude — $102.70/barrel

WTI is not just back above $100, it is grinding higher through the day. Prices extended their rally on 29 April as traders focused on the prospect of a prolonged U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and the continuing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. (oilprice.com; Reuters)

U.S. regular gasoline — $4.176/gallon

That is the latest AAA national average, with diesel at $5.461/gallon. In plain English: even before any dramatic shortage story appears, the cost impact is already visible at the pump and in freight-sensitive parts of the economy. (AAA)

U.S. crude exports — 5.44 million barrels per day in April

EIA tracking data, reported by Reuters last week, has April on track to be one of the strongest months ever for U.S. crude exports, with May projected even higher at 5.48 million bpd. That is the clearest sign yet that the Americas are being pulled into the role of replacement supplier for a disrupted global market. (EIA; Reuters)

What is driving the market now

Reuters reported on 29 April that the White House is preparing to extend the blockade of Iranian ports, while Iran continues to keep the Strait of Hormuz shut. That waterway normally carries about 20% of global oil and LNG supplies (per EIA), which is why the market keeps grinding higher even when headlines briefly cool. The American Petroleum Institute's weekly figures pointed to a second straight broad draw in U.S. inventories: crude down 1.79 million barrels, gasoline down 8.47 million, and distillates down 2.60 million — official EIA data is due later today. (API; EIA; Reuters)

Another major development is the UAE's decision to leave OPEC effective 1 May. Reuters reported the move on 29 April and said analysts do not expect a big near-term supply change, but it does matter strategically: it weakens OPEC's cohesion at exactly the moment the global market is under its biggest shipping strain. (Reuters)

Why this is an Americas distribution story, not just a crude-price story

The clearest stress point inside the hemisphere remains California. The state's four-week average gasoline inventory has fallen to 9.44 million barrels — the lowest in the California Energy Commission's data set going back to 2005 — while the statewide AAA average sits at $5.86/gallon. California is especially vulnerable because it is isolated from the main U.S. fuel pipeline network and relies more heavily on imports from Asia, where refiners themselves depend on Middle Eastern crude. (California Energy Commission; AAA)

The wider logistics map is shifting too. The Panama Canal Authority says it has registered about 300 additional vessel crossings since October compared with the same period a year earlier, as the Middle East war pushes more shipments onto alternative routes. That is a very Americas-specific sign that the hemisphere is becoming more important to global energy routing, not less. (Panama Canal Authority; Reuters)

South America is trying to add barrels, but not fast enough to change the near-term picture

Reuters reported on 28 April that Eni signed an agreement with PDVSA to relaunch a heavy crude project in Venezuela's Orinoco Belt, joining Chevron, Shell, and Repsol in expanding or confirming projects there. Earlier this month, Reuters also reported that Venezuela's oil exports in March rose above 1 million bpd for the first time in six months. Those are important signs that more Western Hemisphere supply is coming into play, but they are medium-term support, not immediate relief for today's refined-product and shipping squeeze. (Reuters)

New on AmericasOilWatch

• Why the WTI–Brent Spread Matters for Americas Exports — the spread is not a side detail. It tells you how much U.S. crude can economically leave the Gulf Coast and where those barrels will go next.

• The Panama Canal Bottleneck: What Tanker Traffic Tells Us About Oil Flows — route friction inside the hemisphere matters more when global shipping is already under stress.

• Guyana: The Fastest-Growing Producer You're Not Watching — a useful reminder that the hemisphere's future supply story is not just the U.S. and Canada.

• US SPR at 78 Million Barrels — How Low Is Too Low? — how much real emergency cushion does Washington still have?

What to watch next

• Whether WTI holds above $100 or moves higher again if the U.S. blockade is prolonged and Hormuz stays shut.

• Whether official EIA inventory data confirms another broad draw across crude, gasoline, and distillates.

• Whether California's tight gasoline situation starts to spread into a broader West Coast supply and pricing problem.

• Whether record U.S. exports and rising Panama Canal traffic continue to redraw the Americas' role in the global oil system.

Thanks for reading AmericasOilWatch Weekly. If this briefing is useful, please forward it to a colleague who follows crude prices, logistics, procurement risk, or Western Hemisphere fuel supply.

Best regards, Jon Kelly AmericasOilWatch americasoilwatch.com

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Also worth watching across the OilWatch network: For European fuel-security analysis, visit eurooilwatch.com. For UK diesel, freight, and fuel-supply pressure, visit ukoilwatch.com.