Insights
In-depth analysis of Americas oil markets — spreads, supply routes, producer dynamics, and policy. Written for readers who already know the basics.
The Attrition Trap: Who Runs Out of Cushion First?
Even as the U.S. bombs Iran and tankers burn off Oman, oil is being shorted — proof the fight is no longer about crude availability. It is a war of attrition over buffers: the SPR, OPEC+ spare capacity, diesel stocks, and Iran's own economy. The U.S. is both the system's cushion and the most exposed to spending it.
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Crude Is Falling — Diesel Isn't. The Hidden Stress Point
While Brent crashes to its lowest since February, diesel has barely moved — U.S. distillate stocks sit about 12 million barrels below the five-year average and refining margins are at multi-week highs. The tightness has rotated from crude to products, and on the West Coast it's already critical. Why the U.S. can export its way into being short the very fuel its trucks and farms run on.
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The Oil Crisis Is Not Ending — It Is Moving Downstream
Falling crude prices are tempting the world to call the oil crisis over. It isn't ending — it's changing shape, moving downstream from a single chokepoint into a distributed resilience crisis spanning refineries, products, tankers, insurance, inventories and sanctions. A tour of the new weak points — and why crude can fall while the real fuel economy stays fragile.
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The West Coast Fuel Squeeze Isn't Where the Headlines Say It Is
The scare stories are about jet fuel. But West Coast jet stocks are sitting comfortably above their five-year average — while diesel and gasoline, the fuels nobody is writing about, are scraping their lowest seasonal levels in five years. The national numbers hide all of it.
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Trump's 'Genius' Blockade Is Working and Failing at the Same Time
Three weeks into Trump's naval blockade of Iran, two completely different stories are being told about whether it's working — and both have receipts. Untangling the measurement problem is more useful than picking a side.
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Why the WTI–Brent Spread Matters for Americas Exports
The WTI–Brent price gap is more than a trader's curiosity — it governs how much American crude actually leaves the Gulf Coast.
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The Panama Canal Bottleneck: What Tanker Traffic Tells Us About Oil Flows
Drought-driven transit restrictions at the Panama Canal have quietly reshaped Pacific-Atlantic crude and product arbitrage. Here's what the numbers actually say.
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Guyana: The Fastest-Growing Producer You're Not Watching
In under a decade, Guyana has gone from zero barrels to over 600,000 bpd. By 2030 it may be bigger than Venezuela. Here's why that matters.
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US SPR at 78 Million Barrels — How Low Is Too Low?
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is roughly half its 2010 peak. At what level does it stop being a credible supply-shock buffer?
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The Canadian Heavy Crude Discount: Structural or Transient?
Western Canadian Select trades at a persistent discount to WTI. TMX was supposed to close it. Here's why the spread hasn't collapsed.
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