Research
The analytical backbone beneath the coverage. An original framework for how systemic crises propagate, its companion typology of why institutions fail to see them coming, and the interactive instruments that put both to work. The dashboards and briefings apply this apparatus; here it is set out in full. Original research by Jonathan Kelly.
The framework and its companion
Compound Cascade Systems Modelling
A reusable framework for how a shock in one system propagates into others through coupling dynamics — and how that propagation can be modelled, bounded, and interrupted. The methodology underlying the From Hormuz to Hunger and The Fall of the UK analyses.
Institutional Failure Mode Typology
The perceptual-side companion: five recurring structural mechanisms by which institutions fail to perceive compound cascade risk — mandate-bounded blindness, model selection bias, sunk-cost epistemology, audience-induced distortion, and coordination failure — calibrated against Iran 1979, Challenger, the 2008 financial crisis, Iraq WMD, and the 2023 regional-banking failures. The framework asks how cascades propagate; the typology asks why institutions fail to see them coming.
Strategic reports & applied analysis
The framework applied to live and historical shocks — how a disruption propagates through real infrastructure, markets and institutions.
The Missing Barrel
Why energy infrastructure — not the barrel count — is the blind spot in the oil shock. The capstone, infrastructure-level statement of the framework.
Russia's Fuel Shortage: a Food-Logistics Warning
A live compound-cascade case: drone-driven refining strain turning fuel into the bottleneck through which food, logistics and public confidence must pass.
From Hormuz to Hunger
The fuel-to-food cascade set off by a Gulf chokepoint shock — the original application of the framework.
The Fall of the UK?
What a shrinking domestic refining base and deep import-dependence mean for national fuel security.
The interactive instruments
The framework is not only argued — it is built. These are reasoning tools, not forecasts: every probability, edge, and buffer figure is an input you can change and watch propagate.
The Doom Loop Engine
A fragility risk register, a buffer-coupled Monte-Carlo cascade simulator, and a country vulnerability-tiering model — three instruments that answer different questions and can legitimately disagree.
The Hormuz Inventory Runway
An interactive depletion model on the months-not-weeks footing: how long the accessible oil cushion lasts under a sustained Hormuz draw, and how precautionary hoarding compresses it.
Independent research
These are working papers and reasoning tools, not financial advice. They are offered as analytical scaffolds: every assumption is stated and contestable, and the framework's value is that a sceptic can change the inputs and watch the conclusion build or dissolve under their own hand. See also the methodology index.