Americas Oil & Fuel Intelligence
Independent daily intelligence on Western Hemisphere oil markets — WTI crude, US petroleum stocks, producer data, and supply-route risk from Canada to Patagonia.
Built for fleet operators, energy traders, procurement teams, and journalists tracking Americas fuel supply.
US Petroleum Stocks — EIA Weekly
Week ending 2026-05-31Commercial Crude
Min: 25d
Gasoline
Min: 25d
Distillates
Min: 30d
SPR
Min: 30d
MB = million barrels. Days-of-supply estimated from EIA demand benchmarks. Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
US production: 13,715 kb/d
WTI Crude — 18-Month Trend
Weekly WTI spot price, Cushing OK. Dashed line = 18-month average. Source: EIA.
Active Supply Disruption
Active since 1 May 2026Russia has halted Kazakh crude supply via Druzhba pipeline to Germany
PCK Schwedt refinery (supplies most of Berlin's fuel) has lost ~17% of its crude since 1 May. Germany says alternative routes cover it, but its regulator has warned of regional pricing risk.
Americas angle: North Atlantic Basin arbitrage is tightening as European refiners seek substitute barrels — more pull on US Gulf Coast crude exports.
Source: Reuters.
Refinery Health Watch
NASA FIRMS VIIRS satellite detections within ~15 km of major US Gulf, US East/West Coast, Caribbean and Latin American refineries. Past 24 h. High Fire Radiative Power near a facility may indicate flaring, fire, or process incident — not all detections indicate incidents.
OPEC+ Production vs Quota
NewOPEC core
34.44mbpd
12 members
Russia
10.68mbpd
non-OPEC anchor
OPEC vs quota
+6.4k
kbpd non-exempt
Open the full OPEC+ tracker — 18 members, monthly history, quota compliance
→Special Report
NewThe Fall of the United Kingdom? — A Compound Cascade Risk Model
Independent systems risk analysis of UK structural decline. 18 causal chains, 100 documented interactions, 9 self-reinforcing feedback loops. Compound assessment: 40–70% probability of Accelerated Decline or worse by 2035, vs 10–20% under additive assessment.
Why it matters here: The UK is the methodology test case · Compound cascade framework applies to any nation-state · Free download (key facts + policy brief + technical report + framework).
By Jonathan Kelly · Independent Systems Risk Analysis · May 2026
Read & download →Special Report
From Hormuz to Hunger — The Compound Cascade That Institutional Models Miss
Independent systems risk analysis of the global fertilizer disruption following the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Probability-weighted central estimate: 118–225M excess deaths across nine interacting causal chains.
Americas angle: US urea +52% · The strikes that triggered the cascade · The August 2026 threshold · Free download (policy brief + full technical report).
By Jonathan Kelly · Independent Systems Risk Analysis · 30 April 2026
Read & download →Latest Insights
All insights →Trump's 'Genius' Blockade Is Working and Failing at the Same Time
Three weeks into Trump's naval blockade of Iran, two completely different stories are being told about whether it's working — and both have receipts. Untangling the measurement problem is more useful than picking a side.
Why the WTI–Brent Spread Matters for Americas Exports
The WTI–Brent price gap is more than a trader's curiosity — it governs how much American crude actually leaves the Gulf Coast.
The Panama Canal Bottleneck: What Tanker Traffic Tells Us About Oil Flows
Drought-driven transit restrictions at the Panama Canal have quietly reshaped Pacific-Atlantic crude and product arbitrage. Here's what the numbers actually say.
AI Analysis
Americas oil markets remain stable with WTI unchanged at $87.36/bbl amid sustained inventory draws and elevated geopolitical risks in key global shipping lanes.
- ›WTI crude unchanged at $87.36/bbl in week ending May 31, showing price stability amid inventory declines
- ›US commercial crude stocks fell 9.1 million barrels to 365.1 million barrels, indicating strong domestic demand
- ›US oil production reached 13.715 million bpd, reinforcing America's position as global output leader
- ›WTI trades $3.76 below Brent, reflecting geopolitical premiums in international markets that benefit Americas producers
- ›Critical maritime advisories for Red Sea and Persian Gulf highlight severe risks to global shipping that don't affect Western Hemisphere supply routes
- ›Retail diesel prices declined 7.3 cents to $5.523/gal, providing modest relief to logistics operators
US crude markets showed price stability in the week ending May 31, with WTI holding steady at $87.36/bbl while commercial crude inventories declined by 9.1 million barrels to 365.1 million barrels. US production reached 13.715 million barrels per day, maintaining America's position as the world's top producer. The sustained inventory drawdown signals healthy domestic demand despite retail gasoline prices remaining elevated at $4.605/gal.
The $3.76 discount of WTI to Brent reflects ongoing global supply concerns, with critical maritime advisories highlighting severe risks in Middle Eastern shipping lanes. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and Iranian threats in the Persian Gulf continue to disrupt global oil flows, though Americas producers benefit from reduced exposure to these chokepoints. The wide Brent premium suggests international markets are pricing in significant geopolitical risk premiums that don't fully impact Western Hemisphere crude.
Refinery operations showed continued strength with both gasoline and distillate inventories declining by 2.6 million and 2.1 million barrels respectively. Retail diesel prices fell by 7.3 cents to $5.523/gal, providing some relief to logistics operators, though levels remain elevated compared to historical norms. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve sits at 81.2 million barrels, well below historical averages but stable for emergency response capacity.
Across the broader Americas, market fundamentals remain supportive with US shale production steady and Canadian oil sands continuing to flow through expanded pipeline capacity. The geopolitical premium in global markets creates favorable conditions for Western Hemisphere producers, who can serve both domestic and export markets while avoiding the most volatile shipping routes affecting Middle Eastern and Russian crude flows.
Generated by claude-sonnet-4-20250514 · Based on EIA data + MARAD advisories
Weekly Americas Energy Briefing
WTI price moves, US stock changes, producer developments, and supply route alerts — every week. Free.
See past briefings · Unsubscribe anytime
Western Hemisphere — Key Producers
North America
World's largest producer. Shale-dominant. WTI benchmark set at Cushing, Oklahoma.
Second-largest producer. Oil sands dominant. WCS trades at discount to WTI due to heavy, sour grade and pipeline constraints.
Central America & Mexico
PEMEX state monopoly. Production has fallen sharply since 2004 peak. Aging Cantarell field. New Dos Bocas refinery online.
Caribbean
Mature producer. Atlantic LNG hub — significant natural gas exporter to US and Europe. Refining capacity exceeds local production.
South America
South America's largest producer. Petrobras-led pre-salt deepwater fields driving sustained growth.
Fastest-growing oil producer in the world. ExxonMobil-led Stabroek block. Targeting 1.2m bpd by 2027. No refining capacity — all exported crude.
Declining output from mature fields. Government restricting new exploration contracts. Ecopetrol state company.
OPEC member. World's largest proven reserves (302 billion bbl) but production collapsed from 3m+ bpd under sanctions and mismanagement. Partial recovery underway.
Vaca Muerta shale formation is world-class — second only to Permian in recoverable shale oil. Rapid development underway under pro-investment government.
OPEC member. Amazon basin production. Security challenges and declining legacy field output.
Amazon basin production. Norperuano pipeline. Petroperu state refinery at Talara recently upgraded.
Primarily natural gas — South America's key gas supplier to Brazil and Argentina. Oil production minor and declining.
Maritime Advisory Snapshot
Full supply page →Source: US Maritime Administration (MARAD).
Energy Research — CREA
All research →AmericasOilWatch PRO
Professional-tier tools for traders, fleet operators, and procurement teams. Launching mid-2026.
Price alerts
WTI, Brent, WCS thresholds by email or webhook
Historical exports
CSV downloads of all pricing and stock series
Custom watchlists
Track chokepoints and producers relevant to your flows
Monthly intel brief
In-depth quarterly Americas supply outlook
Interested in early access or founding-partner sponsorship? Get in touch
Cite this data — Public API
Full docs →Every number on this dashboard is available as JSON via a free, read-only API. CORS-enabled, no authentication, no key required. Built for journalists, analysts, researchers, and LLM agents who want to cite the source rather than scrape the page.
curl https://americasoilwatch.com/api/v1/wti # current WTI
curl https://americasoilwatch.com/api/v1/us-stocks # EIA weekly stocks
curl https://americasoilwatch.com/api/v1 # endpoint indexAttribution: cite as "AmericasOilWatch — americasoilwatch.com" alongside the underlying institutional source (EIA, etc.) which is included in every payload.
Also available: RSS feed and a network activity page tracking newsletters, new insights, reports and dashboard updates across all three OilWatch sites.
Editorial
Written and edited by Jon Kelly, founder of the OilWatch network.
Also publishing at EuroOilWatch and UKOilWatch.