Methodology
Data Sources & Update Cadence
| Dataset | Source | Cadence | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude spot | EIA API v2 (series RWTC) | Weekly | 1–3 days |
| Brent Crude (live card) | Stooq cb.f front-month futures | Intraday | ~15 min |
| Brent Crude (historical chart) | EIA Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (RBRTE) — daily, since 1987 | Daily | 1–2 days |
| US petroleum stocks | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report | Weekly (Wed) | 5–7 days |
| US retail gasoline / diesel | EIA weekly retail survey | Weekly (Mon) | Same day |
| Maritime advisories | US MARAD | On-publish | Hours |
| Energy research | CREA RSS | On-publish | Hours |
| News aggregation | OilPrice.com, Rigzone, Offshore Technology | Daily | Hours |
| Producer snapshots | IEA MOMR, OPEC MOMR, national regulators | Editorial | Weeks |
All automated pipelines run daily at approximately 05:00 UTC. Manual editorial updates (producer snapshots, chokepoint risk ratings) are reviewed weekly.
Brent — Two Series for Two Jobs
We use two different Brent series and disclose both because they can diverge during volatile markets. The live current-price card on the dashboard tracks Stooq's cb.f front-month futures (intraday, freely available, refreshes every five minutes). Front-month futures price expected near-term delivery and roll between contracts.
The “Brent in Historical Context” chart on /prices draws from the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Europe Brent Spot Price FOB daily series (RBRTE), which goes back to 20 May 1987. EIA spot is the more authoritative reference for analytical work — it's what most press and policy citations mean by “Brent.” eia.gov ↗
In normal markets the spread between the two series is about $1–3/bbl. During the Iran war period of early 2026 it widened past $25/bbl as the futures curve discounted a near-term ceasefire. Both are real, sourced numbers — they answer different questions.
Days-of-Supply Calculation
Days-of-supply figures shown on the dashboard are computed as stock ÷ typical US demand:
- Commercial Crude: vs ~16 million bpd refinery input
- Gasoline: vs ~9 million bpd product demand
- Distillates: vs ~4 million bpd product demand
- SPR: vs ~6 million bpd net crude imports (traditional IEA import-cover metric)
Demand benchmarks are held constant for readability; in reality they fluctuate seasonally (±10–15%). The figures are best read as relative benchmarks rather than operational forecasts.
Update Frequency
EIA data is updated weekly — crude stocks on Wednesdays, retail prices on Mondays. The pipeline runs daily at 05:00 UTC to pick up the latest available data. AI analysis is regenerated on each successful data fetch.
Producer Data
Production figures for non-US countries (Canada, Brazil, Guyana, etc.) are editorial estimates based on IEA Monthly Oil Market Report, OPEC MOMR, and national regulator releases. These are updated less frequently than US EIA data and should be treated as approximate figures.
AI Analysis
Analysis is generated by Claude (Anthropic) using the latest fetched data. It is not financial advice. The model is instructed to cite specific numbers and avoid speculation beyond the data. Analysis is regenerated daily when new data is available.
Chokepoint Risk Ratings
Risk ratings are editorial assessments updated manually based on news sources, MARAD advisories, and geopolitical developments. They do not update automatically. Normal / Elevated / High / Critical follows the same framework as EuroOilWatch and UKOilWatch.