Methodology

Data Sources & Update Cadence

All automated pipelines run daily at approximately 05:00 UTC. Manual editorial updates (producer snapshots, chokepoint risk ratings) are reviewed weekly.

Brent — Two Series for Two Jobs

We use two different Brent series and disclose both because they can diverge during volatile markets. The live current-price card on the dashboard tracks Stooq's cb.f front-month futures (intraday, freely available, refreshes every five minutes). Front-month futures price expected near-term delivery and roll between contracts.

The “Brent in Historical Context” chart on /prices draws from the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Europe Brent Spot Price FOB daily series (RBRTE), which goes back to 20 May 1987. EIA spot is the more authoritative reference for analytical work — it's what most press and policy citations mean by “Brent.” eia.gov ↗

In normal markets the spread between the two series is about $1–3/bbl. During the Iran war period of early 2026 it widened past $25/bbl as the futures curve discounted a near-term ceasefire. Both are real, sourced numbers — they answer different questions.

Days-of-Supply Calculation

Days-of-supply figures shown on the dashboard are computed as stock ÷ typical US demand:

• Commercial Crude: vs ~16 million bpd refinery input
• Gasoline: vs ~9 million bpd product demand
• Distillates: vs ~4 million bpd product demand

Demand benchmarks are held constant for readability; in reality they fluctuate seasonally (±10–15%). The figures are best read as relative benchmarks rather than operational forecasts.

Why the SPR Has No Days-of-Supply Figure

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is shown as a stock level, a drawdown rate and a maximum delivery rate — deliberately without a “days of cover” number. Until August 2026 this dashboard divided the SPR by roughly 6 million bpd of gross crude imports and labelled the result “days of import cover”. That was wrong on two counts, and we have removed it.

First, the denominator. The US Department of Energy expresses SPR import protection against net crude imports — imports less exports — not gross. At 411 million barrels on 31 December 2025, DOE described the reserve as approximately 125 days of net import protection, implying a denominator near 3.3 million bpd rather than 6. Weekly net crude imports are volatile too (roughly 2.2–2.6 million bpd in recent EIA weekly reports), so any single-week “days” figure moves sharply for reasons that have nothing to do with the reserve.

Second, and more importantly, no denominator turns the SPR into a countdown. The United States produces about 13.8 million bpd of crude domestically, holds around 407 million barrels of commercial crude on top of the SPR, holds substantial gasoline and distillate inventories, and continues to import. The SPR is the insurance against the next disruption, not the national fuel tank, and presenting it as “n days remaining” misleads more than it informs.

What we show instead: the stock in million barrels; the change over the past five weeks and the implied average daily drawdown; and DOE’s maximum nominal drawdown capability of 4.4 million bpd with roughly 13 days from a Presidential decision to oil reaching the market. That 4.4 million bpd is a nominal maximum quoted at full inventory — real sustained withdrawal rates decline as cavern inventory falls. Capability figures from DOE SPR Quick Facts; stock levels from the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (series WCSSTUS1).

Update Frequency

EIA data is updated weekly — crude stocks on Wednesdays, retail prices on Mondays. The pipeline runs daily at 05:00 UTC to pick up the latest available data. AI analysis is regenerated on each successful data fetch.

Producer Data

Production figures for non-US countries (Canada, Brazil, Guyana, etc.) are editorial estimates based on IEA Monthly Oil Market Report, OPEC MOMR, and national regulator releases. These are updated less frequently than US EIA data and should be treated as approximate figures.

AI Analysis

Analysis is generated by Claude (Anthropic) using the latest fetched data. It is not financial advice. The model is instructed to cite specific numbers and avoid speculation beyond the data. Analysis is regenerated daily when new data is available.

Chokepoint Risk Ratings

Risk ratings are editorial assessments updated manually based on news sources, MARAD advisories, and geopolitical developments. They do not update automatically. Normal / Elevated / High / Critical follows the same framework as EuroOilWatch and UKOilWatch.