OPEC+ Production Tracker

US shale–OPEC+ dynamic. For most of the 2010s, OPEC's production decisions were the dominant variable for global oil prices, and US shale was the price-taker. Since 2020 that relationship has inverted into a balance: US production hit record highs (currently around 13.5 mbpd), making the US the world's largest crude producer and a meaningful constraint on what OPEC+ can achieve through supply discipline alone.

Compliance is structurally imperfect. Member quotas in the Declaration of Cooperation are routinely missed at the country level — typically with persistent over-production from Iraq, the UAE, Kazakhstan, and historically Russia, balanced by Saudi Arabia absorbing the discipline. Iran, Venezuela and Libya have exempt status due to sanctions or instability and their production swings on geopolitics rather than quota.

JMMC meetings move markets. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meets approximately every two months. Its statements (extension, deepening, or unwinding of voluntary cuts) are the primary calendar event for crude markets in normal conditions.

Post-war context. In the current Hormuz scenario, OPEC+ Gulf production is physically stranded rather than quota-constrained — Saudi, UAE, Kuwaiti and Iraqi barrels are produced but cannot ship. That makes the historic compliance frame less useful; the relevant metric becomes capacity stranded by the strait closure, not quota cheating. See the Iran-blockade analysis for the full picture.