The oil market sees the chokepoint. The fertilizer market is where it lands.
Hormuz, the Red Sea and the Black Sea aren't just oil chokepoints. They're fertilizer chokepoints. Five nations on the wrong side of these routes — Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Russia — between them control disproportionate shares of global urea, ammonia and potash exports. When Hormuz tightens, the price of growing food in the rest of the world goes up before the price of driving across it does.
This page tracks the operative numbers: urea, ammonia, DAP, potash and TTF natural gas. The first four are the world's nitrogen and phosphate benchmarks. TTF is included because European ammonia capacity is gas-cost-bound — when TTF rises, European plants idle and the region becomes more Gulf-dependent. Together these readings are the operational layer beneath the editorial argument made in our From Hormuz to Hunger analysis.
Fertilizer Watch
Editorial · updated weekly
Ureaw/w broadly stable — CBOT front-month futures ~$475.50/t (week of 19 Aug 2026); holding consolidated near top of $450–475 range
Egypt FOB (granular)
~$450–475/t
CBOT UFE front-month (Sep-26) futures indicated ~$475.50/t per TradingView/Barchart search snippet (week of 19 Aug 2026) — unchanged from prior week. Africa urea indicated at ~$480/t (up 1% m/m per IMARC public citation, July data). Physical spot paywalled at Profercy/QCIntel/ICIS. Urea peaked above $850/t in April 2026 post-Hormuz closure, softened in May after China lifted export ban (farmdocdaily.illinois.edu; World Bank Pink Sheet peak $725.6/t in March, above $850 in April). Mid-July trough ~$385–400/t; recovery has consolidated near top of $450–475 range. Hormuz war premium continues to underpin above pre-crisis baseline. Subscription-grade assessments required for confirmed physical level.
AmmoniaAugust contract confirmed at Hormuz-cycle high; September contract remains publicly unconfirmed as of 19 Aug 2026
Tampa CFR contract
~$870/t
August Yara–Mosaic Tampa CFR contract confirmed at ~$870/t (up $70/mt on July's $800/t), per QCIntel headline 'Tampa ammonia contract spikes by $70/mt for August' (article paywalled, headline visible in search results, week of 5 Aug 2026). QCIntel headline 'Atlantic ammonia prices climb as Tampa reaches multi-year high' (week of 12 Aug 2026) confirms prices remain elevated. September contract remains publicly unconfirmed as of week of 19 Aug 2026 — no settlement headline found in public sources. North African supply tightening and continuing Hormuz disruption cited as drivers. Monthly benchmark — subscription-only for full confirmed assessment text.
DAPbroadly stable — consolidating at ~$795/st at NOLA (week ending 17 Aug); Chinese phosphate export curbs sustaining support through August
NOLA FOB barge
~$785–800/st
igrownews Fertilizer Prices Weekly Update (week ending 17 Aug 2026): DAP +0.32% on the week to $795.00/T, up 3.58% on the month. China phosphate export restrictions through August covering ~50–80% of export volumes continue to support the floor. Argus headline 'Nola DAP re-export demand drives prices higher' (week of 12 Aug 2026, article paywalled) drove prior-week firming leg; re-export demand pulse has not reversed but is consolidating. China restrictions estimated to have removed 7–9 million metric tonnes from global trade; OCP and Ma'aden filling gap at $20–40/t landed-cost premium. Physical barge spot (Green Markets / DTN) remains paywalled. Indicative — not a confirmed physical assessment.
Potash (MOP)stable — no fresh public citations for week of 19 Aug
Brazil CFR granular
$405–415/t
No fresh public citations for week of 19 Aug — holding prior indications (~$405–415/t CFR). World Bank Pink Sheet March 2026 data: $380.6/t; Brazil CFR typically carries a premium over Pink Sheet standard. Procurement Resource notes MOP Brazil prices rose ~4% in Q1 2026 versus Q4 2025; no material change signalled for August. Not exchange-traded; subscription-only for confirmed level.
TTF natgasrising — holding above €62/MWh at fresh three-week high; US-Iran negotiations stall, Southern European heatwave boosts gas-fired power demand
Front-month — European ammonia cost driver
€58–65/MWh
TTF front-month trading at ~€62.50/MWh as of August 18–19, 2026 per TradingView/EnergyRiskIQ/Yahoo Finance consensus (EnergyRiskIQ: '€62.50/MWh'; Aug 17: €62.22/MWh, up 1.29% on day; Aug 19: €62.58/MWh, up 1.51% on day). Fresh three-week high, advancing from ~€57–59 settlement of August 11–12. Drivers this week: US-Iran diplomatic negotiations stalled (Israeli strikes against Tehran-backed Hezbollah complicated diplomatic track); Southern and Central European heatwave driving gas-fired cooling demand surge; Gulf LNG shipping disruptions delaying Qatar cargoes; EU storage build tracking below seasonal target. EU gas up ~5.9% on the month, ~99% year-on-year. Range updated to €58–65/MWh reflecting observed intraweek floor (~€58) and existing ceiling (€65 from prior spike — intraweek high of €64.4/MWh recorded week of 12 Aug remains the recent peak). Ongoing Hormuz disruption continues to underpin elevated levels versus pre-crisis baseline.
Current reading: The hemisphere's nitrogen cost reference holds confirmed at approximately $870/t CFR Tampa for August — the Hormuz-cycle high — with September's contract settlement still publicly unconfirmed as of August 19. DAP has broadly consolidated this week at approximately $795/st FOB NOLA barge (up 0.3% on the week, up 3.6% on the month per igrownews weekly update), as China's extended phosphate export restrictions through August continue to hold physical supply tighter than any pre-crisis baseline — the re-export demand from Gulf buyers that drove the prior week's firming leg has not reversed; it has paused while the $795 level consolidates. TTF — the global nitrogen production cost signal — has advanced further to approximately €62–63/MWh (a fresh three-week high, up from ~€57–59 at the August 11–12 settlement) on stalled US-Iran negotiations and a Southern European heatwave driving gas-fired cooling demand, confirming that the global ammonia cost floor continues to rise into the Northern Hemisphere autumn application season. Urea holds near $475/t (Egypt FOB, CBOT front-month futures unchanged from last week). Brazil continues buying potash at approximately $405–415/t CFR granular — broadly unchanged — as Safrinha crop preparation advances into the critical planting window. For Central American and Andean markets dependent on imported fertilizers, the third successive week with ammonia confirmed at $870/t Tampa, DAP consolidating above $790/st at NOLA, TTF above €62/MWh, and urea holding well above any pre-Hormuz baseline leaves no signal that the structural cost elevation of the 2026 planting season is approaching resolution — import-dependent smaller economies continue to absorb these levels with limited price-hedging capacity.
Watch next: Whether September's Tampa ammonia contract confirms at, above, or below August's cycle-high $870/t — the key test for whether the hemisphere nitrogen cost floor is still rising. Whether DAP holds near $795/st at NOLA or consolidates lower as the re-export demand pulse stabilises. Whether urea holds the top of the $450–475 range given the Africa $480 signal. Whether TTF sustains above €62/MWh or pulls back as heatwave demand eases — gas direction is the global nitrogen cost signal. Brazil's Safrinha potash demand and CFR bids into Q4 remain the key physical price signal for the $405–415/t MOP level. Sourcing note: real-time Argus / Green Markets assessments are subscription-only and the free World Bank Pink Sheet lags ~a month — these are publicly-cited indications.
Weekly editorial refresh from World Bank Pink Sheet (monthly, free), Argus public citations, Reuters / Bloomberg quotes, IFA quarterly summaries, and USDA fertilizer outlook. Gold-standard real-time prices (CRU, Argus, ICIS, Profercy) are paywalled — ranges are aggregated from publicly-cited figures and CBOT futures snippets, not republished feeds. Editorial reading is our market interpretation. Updated 19 Aug 2026.
Why it matters in the Americas
The Americas have a real cushion the rest of the world lacks: US domestic nitrogen capacity at scale (CF Industries' Donaldsonville and Yazoo City urea / ammonia complexes), Canadian potash (Nutrien in Saskatchewan), and a hemisphere food-export role that makes US grain itself the buffer for many import-dependent countries.
That cushion is real but it isn't infinite. Brazil — the world's third-largest agricultural exporter — imports the bulk of its nitrogen needs, heavily from Gulf and Russian sources. Mexico, Caribbean nations, and Central American agriculture all run import-dependent inputs through Gulf shipping. And US food exports themselves carry hemisphere food security on their back, which means when US farmers face higher input costs, the second-order effects show up first in São Paulo, Mexico City and Port-au-Prince — not in Houston.
The chain
How a Hormuz chokepoint becomes a food-security event, in seven operational steps.
Hormuz / Red Sea disruption throttles Gulf urea and ammonia exports — Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, five producer nations on the wrong side of the chokepoint.
Global benchmark prices spike. World Bank Pink Sheet, April 2026: nitrogen up ~70% across the board; US urea +52% since the strikes.
European ammonia plants idle as TTF natural gas rises — production cost exceeds the cost of importing finished product.
Import-dependent regions (South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Brazil, the Sahel) face fertilizer scarcity and price shocks they cannot absorb at consumer level.
Non-linear yield collapse on the next crop cycle: a 10% nitrogen reduction produces ~25% yield loss in well-fertilized agriculture — and 30–50% on the world's most marginal soils.
Food prices rise in import-dependent countries. Sovereign-debt and export-ban doom loops accelerate.
If the blockade extends past the August threshold identified in our Hormuz to Hunger model, the damage transitions from one missed crop cycle into compounding multi-cycle collapse.
Read the full analysis
From Hormuz to Hunger — Policy Brief + Technical Report (v4)
The systems analysis behind this page — nine causal chains, scenario-weighted estimates, historical calibration against nine famines, and policy recommendations. Free, no signup required.