10 October 2026 | OilWatch analysis | First published on EuroOilWatch
The headline numbers look like recovery. On Kpler's estimates, Middle East crude exports are back at pre-war volume, and Standard Chartered estimates Saudi crude exports rebounded to about 6.9 million barrels a day in September. These are crude figures. They say nothing about whether refined-product supply has recovered.
The routing has changed. Before the war, about 83% of Gulf crude exports outside Iran crossed Hormuz; in September, only about 60% did. The rest now relies on bypass pipelines, alternative ports and ship-to-ship transfers. For Saudi Arabia, that means more weight on Yanbu and the Red Sea.
President Trump said on 8 October that the US would not attack Iran before the 3 November midterms. That pledge covers US strikes on Iran. It does not bind Iran, the Houthis or Iraqi militias, and none of this week's attacks on Saudi targets were American.