AmericasOilWatch Weekly — Brent $92, WTI $89; US crude drawn to 433.7M as the Americas carry the shock (10 June)

AmericasOilWatch Weekly Wednesday, 10 June 2026

Welcome to this week's AmericasOilWatch Weekly.

The global oil system is still shaped by one fact: Middle East supply remains constrained, and buyers are leaning harder on Atlantic Basin barrels. That puts the Americas — the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, Argentina and Venezuela — at the centre of the oil story. AmericasOilWatch's own Chokepoint Transit Monitor now reads Oil Route Stress: Severe, with Strait of Hormuz tanker tonnage running at roughly 1% of its 2023 norm and traffic rerouting the long way round the Cape of Good Hope.

Brent was around $92/barrel on Wednesday morning, with WTI near $89, after renewed US-Iran tension firmed crude again. Prices have eased from the spring's worst levels, but the market hasn't normalised — and the issue is no longer just price. It's inventory, export capacity, refining strain, and how long the Americas can keep filling the gap. (AmericasOilWatch live screen; prices via EIA.)

1. The U.S. is exporting strength — and drawing down stocks

The US is the marginal supplier of both crude and product, helping Europe and Asia replace disrupted Gulf flows — but pulling barrels out of domestic storage to do it.

The latest EIA weekly report showed commercial crude stocks down about 8 million barrels to 433.7 million (week ending 29 May), with crude exports near 5.9 mb/d — among the highest weekly readings on record — and refinery utilisation around 94.7%. Production is running about 13.7 mb/d. (EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.) You can watch the export strength directly: AmericasOilWatch's new Port Oil-Flow Monitor shows Houston tanker exports at ~435,000 tonnes/day, 111% of their 2023 pace, with Corpus Christi also shipping heavily.

Preliminary industry (API) data pointed to another sizeable crude draw for the week ending 5 June, ahead of today's official EIA release. The tension is structural: America can export more, but not indefinitely without tightening domestic balances — and the SPR cushion now sits at just 357 million barrels, far below its pre-2022 level.

2. Fuel prices have cooled — but remain painful

Pump prices have eased from recent highs but stay well above last year. EIA's latest weekly retail averages put regular gasoline near $4.44/gallon and diesel near $5.35/gallon (week ending 1 June). (Daily AAA retail readings run a little lower; both tell the same story.)

Diesel is the number to watch. Gasoline matters politically; diesel matters economically — it moves trucking, agriculture, food distribution and industry. If diesel stays elevated, the pressure spreads.

3. Jet fuel is the clearest sign of refinery stress

US refiners have shifted aggressively toward jet, because global aviation-fuel markets were hit hard by the loss of Gulf flows. EIA data shows US jet-fuel production rising since late February, with the four-week average topping 2 mb/d in early May — a record — much of it exported to short markets in Europe and Asia.

That's good for refiner margins but complicates the balance: refineries can shift yields, but can't maximise everything at once. (Consistent with our own PADD 5 read — West Coast jet sits near the top of its five-year band, while West Coast distillate is flagged critical.)

4. Canada is stable for now — but wildfire risk is back

Canada's oil sands remain one of the most secure supply sources in this market. Wildfires haven't caused major production losses this season, but the risk has returned — recent northern Alberta fires came close to oil-sands operations before rain eased the danger. Last year, wildfires temporarily disrupted more than 300,000 b/d of output.

The structural problem is unresolved: Cenovus's CEO said this week that a proposed 1 mb/d Alberta-to-BC-coast pipeline is not financeable under the current regulatory regime (as reported) — leaving Canada heavily tied to US refining demand.

5. South America is no longer a side story

The biggest structural shift is in South America. Brazil's Petrobras is redirecting more exports toward Asia; Guyana now produces over 900,000 b/d from the Stabroek block; and Argentina's Vaca Muerta keeps attracting capital, including Chevron's reported $13.8 billion unconventional project. The supply response is no longer just US shale — it's Gulf Coast exports, Canadian oil sands, Brazilian offshore, Guyana and Argentine shale together.

6. Venezuela is opening — but investors are cautious

Venezuela could become a larger swing factor, but not quickly or cleanly. Recent reforms have drawn interest in oil, shipping and chemicals, but legal uncertainty, weak infrastructure and unresolved expropriation disputes keep investors wary. Venezuelan barrels may help over time — they're not a short-term rescue valve.

7. The food link: Brazil's fertilizer problem

The oil shock is feeding into food risk. Brazil's farmers are more exposed than US farmers to imported fertilizer, and higher input costs are hitting ahead of key planting decisions. Fuel, fertilizer, freight and food are becoming one connected story — see our analysis, From Hormuz to Hunger, Six Weeks On, on how the fertilizer channel is transmitting the shock.

What to watch next

1. Today's official EIA inventory report — another big crude draw makes the buffer story more serious.
2. US exports — if exports stay high while stocks fall, Washington faces a choice between global supply support and domestic prices.
3. Diesel — gasoline drives headlines; diesel drives the economy.
4. Alberta wildfire risk — a serious oil-sands disruption would have outsized effect.
5. South America — Brazil, Guyana and Argentina are becoming strategic suppliers faster than policymakers realise.

Bottom line

The Americas are holding the oil market together more than at the start of the year — but the role has a cost. US stocks are being drawn down, the SPR cushion is thin, refineries are running hard, Canada faces wildfire and export bottlenecks, and South America is growing fast but not fast enough to remove the squeeze. For now, the Americas are the pressure valve. The question is how long that valve can stay open.

— AmericasOilWatch · americasoilwatch.com