Americas Oil Briefing: US buffers at multi-year lows as Hormuz slowly reopens (24 June)

AmericasOilWatch Weekly Briefing Wednesday 24 June 2026

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The global oil market is in a fragile transition. After months of severe disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, a U.S.–Iran ceasefire framework has allowed tanker traffic to begin recovering — but the damage to inventories is already done. The United States has shouldered much of the burden as the world's swing supplier, and its emergency and commercial buffers are now at multi-year lows.

Brent crude has slipped back into the mid-to-high $70s (around $77–79; WTI in the mid-$70s) after easing on hopes of normalised flows — see the live dashboard for the current quote. Prices remain elevated versus early 2026 but have pulled back sharply from the peaks seen at the height of the Hormuz crisis.

1. U.S. Crude Inventories Are at Critical Lows — What Happens When the Buffers Run Out?

The latest confirmed EIA data, for the week ending 12 June, showed U.S. commercial crude oil inventories falling another 8.3 million barrels to 418.2 million — roughly 6% below the five-year average for this time of year. This follows a string of large draws driven by heavy exports and high refinery runs. (The next weekly report, for the week ending 19 June, is due today.)

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is in even worse shape. SPR stocks have fallen to about 340 million barrels — the lowest level since 1983, with the prior low (346.7M) set in mid-2023. Roughly 75 million barrels have been released since late February as part of the response to the Iran conflict, including an 8.9-million-barrel draw in a single recent week.

What happens if these buffers keep shrinking?

Higher price volatility: With commercial stocks already tight and the SPR near historic lows, any new shock — weather, a geopolitical flare-up, a refinery outage, a shipping disruption — would land with outsized force.

Refinery strain: U.S. refiners are running hard, with utilisation recently near 97%. Further inventory pressure could force yield shifts or even reduced runs if crude becomes physically scarce in some regions.

Export vs. domestic tension: The U.S. has been exporting heavily to fill global gaps. Sustained high exports while domestic stocks fall risks political pressure to curb exports or accelerate SPR refills.

Longer-term risk: A depleted SPR reduces America's ability to respond to a true national emergency. Refilling takes years and is expensive at current prices.

The good news: the U.S. still pumps a record ~13.8 million barrels a day and remains one of the world's most important crude and product suppliers. The bad news: the safety net is thinner than it has been in decades.

2. Strait of Hormuz: Shipping Is Restarting — But Slowly, and Lopsidedly

The biggest story of 2026 has been the near-total disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz after U.S.–Iran tensions escalated in late February.

Pre-conflict: 100+ tankers per day transited the strait. Peak disruption: Traffic collapsed to a small fraction of normal. Now (late June): After the 17 June memorandum and a 60-day roadmap agreed on 22 June, the U.S.-led Joint Maritime Information Center cut its Hormuz threat level to moderate and the U.S. blockade ended. Tanker movements are picking up — but volumes remain well below normal, and the recovery is lopsided.

The vessels conspicuously back in the strait are largely Iranian — ships that went dark during the war, now switching transponders on to rush crude out while a new U.S. licence (OFAC General License X) authorises Iranian oil sales through 21 August. Some Saudi, UAE and Qatari (LNG) cargoes are moving too, but broader international traffic stays thin: operators are wary of elevated war-risk insurance, ongoing mine-clearance, and Iran's own conflicting signals (Tehran declared the strait closed again on 20 June; the U.S. disputed it and traffic kept flowing). More than 25 million barrels of Iranian crude have reportedly moved since mid-June, but full normalisation will take weeks to months.

This is why the Americas have been critical: every barrel not coming through Hormuz has had to be replaced from elsewhere.

3. The Americas Are Filling the Gap — But at a Cost

While the Middle East was constrained, supply growth from the Western Hemisphere accelerated.

United States: Record or near-record crude and product exports continue; refineries run hard to make jet fuel, diesel and gasoline for global markets.

Guyana: Production is around 920,000 barrels per day across the Stabroek developments, with the new Uaru project due to start up in 2026 — pushing output toward and past 1 million bpd.

Brazil: A strong offshore ramp-up continues as new FPSOs come online; South American exports overall have surged.

Canada & Argentina: Steady contributions from oil sands and Vaca Muerta shale support Atlantic Basin supply.

Collectively, the Americas — especially the U.S., Brazil and Guyana — have been the primary swing suppliers replacing disrupted Middle East barrels.

What to Watch Next

Today's EIA inventory report (week ending 19 June): confirms whether the heavy-draw trend continues. Hormuz traffic and insurance: watch daily tanker counts — and specifically whether non-Iranian traffic returns, not just Iranian barrels leaving. War-risk premiums falling would be the real "all-clear." SPR refill plans: any announcement on how and when the U.S. replenishes its emergency reserve will matter. South American momentum: new startups in Brazil and Guyana (Uaru) are key for H2 2026. Refinery utilisation and product stocks: diesel and jet-fuel balances remain especially important.

Bottom Line

The U.S. oil buffers — commercial stocks plus the Strategic Petroleum Reserve — are not gone, but they are seriously depleted. The country has successfully acted as the world's marginal supplier through the Hormuz crisis, but the role has come at a clear cost to domestic stockpiles.

With Hormuz traffic now slowly resuming, the immediate crisis is easing. But the market stays tight, the reopening is uneven, and the Western Hemisphere will likely need to stay in "swing supplier" mode for months. The Americas have held the line. The question now is whether global inventories can rebuild before the next shock arrives.

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Figures verified against the AmericasOilWatch dashboard (EIA weekly: commercial crude 418.2M, SPR 340.3M, US output 13.8M bpd) and: CNN/Fortune (SPR lowest since 1983); CNBC/Reuters and JMIC (Hormuz roadmap, threat downgrade); US Treasury OFAC (General License X); ExxonMobil/EIA (Guyana output). Brent via Stooq. Analysis, not financial advice.